The dangerously combustible mix of: Increased standing in the world, increased nationalistic pride and grouse against established power(s).

In the last three days Russia has been at war with Georgia, a conflict that has, if reports are to be believed, left more than 2000 civilians dead.

In the words of George W. Bush, this conflict is "occurring in regions of Georgia far removed from the zone of conflict in South Ossetia.."

As worrying, the Russian foreign minister has reportedly declared that the Georgian president "must go". This prompted what Richard Roth, CNN's U.N correspondent described as "language from another era.." on the floor of the United Nations security council.

Surely the reason why Russia is so concerned about South Ossetia wouldn't be about.. the need to change the regime in Georgia!???...?

Currently Russia (a militarily powerful country that has known its fair share of prominence) enjoys increased standing in the world.. not least because of the billions of dollars It is accruing from the sale of its oil. The increased nationalistic pride felt by Russian citizens is there for all the world to see..
The Russian federation has, in the recent past, hardly passed up on a chance to criticize the United States for what it describes as increasing U.S hegemony...

The mix of Increased standing in the world, nationalistic pride, and grouse (real or perceived) against established power(s) whilst good for a nation's psyche, should perhaps best be very carefully managed..

... Russia, Europe and indeed the world need only look back to 70 years ago to remind themselves of why..

"..If the arsonists are in charge there will never be enough firefighters"....Luis Moreno- Ocampo.

Elizabeth Rubin's article in the TIME magazine, published online on July 24 2008 is worth a read.

It describes Luis Moreno- Ocampo's [prosecutor of the international criminal courts] frustration at what he sees as the United Nations and the West being out of touch with what has been going on in Dafur, which counts 300,000 as dead and 2.5 million people as displaced.

The article describes how initial encouragement to charge Omar Hassan al-Bashir the Sudanese leader with genocide gave way to lukewarmness, and then when he [Luis Moreno- Ocampo] pressed on, accusations that he will be "responsible for a bloodbath" in Dafur.

It was interesting, his answer: "Today the people of Dafur are being killed. Today they are being destroyed and have no hope".

"Diplomatic obstruction and political accommodation" over a period of nearly three years allowed the Sudanese Leader free reign to protect perpetrators of acts of genocide, continue to terrorise the people of Dafur, as well as withhold much needed aid.

It seems that in today's complicated world of international diplomacy, the oft claimed 'big picture' view fails to take into consideration the suffering in real time, of the man, woman and child in much need of protection.

A diplomacy that is less about 'black or white' and more about 'different shades of gray' is in danger of encouraging conditions like those in Dafur..

... conditions that sadly are never in the best interests of the very people meant to be protected.

The 'Kibaki/Odinga effect' perhaps?

A frankly nonplussed world looked on yesterday as Robert Mugabe of ZANU-PF shook hands on the beginning of talks that should end in a coalition government with Morgan Tsvangirai and his party the MDC.



.. It was like a bolt from the blue, especially with the violence on the streets gaining momentum, as well as the fact that both men are said not to have spoken to each other in 10 years..



Barely concealed resentment for each other was evident, which begs for cautious optimism. The road they start upon would not be easy..



As tenuous as all this may seem to the critics however, the happenings of the last 24 hours is yet another positive for crises resolution in Africa..



Like the Kibaki/Odinga experience in Kenya, with the help of fellow Africans Zimbabwe's big man agrees to talk with his adversary for the sake of peace..

The meaning of peace..

As the world celebrates the 90th birthday of Nelson Mandela, a time perhaps to reflect on the true meaning of peace..

The Madiba gave much of his adult life to the struggle for freedom, Justice and equality for Black South Africans in the era of Apartheid..

He also, crucially, initiated truth and reconciliation as a means of ensuring sustained and peaceful co-existence..

As we fondly remember his struggle therefore, we must also remember his perhaps less celebrated act of bringing together perpetrator and aggrieved with a view to achieving necessary catharsis and with this, the higher ground. This perhaps is the true meaning of peace..

The Prisoner Swap Conundrum..

The Israeli cabinet's decision to trade a Lebanese Militant for two [quite possibly dead] Israeli soldiers today, and the resultant misgivings expressed by some about giving militants little incentive to keep captured soldiers alive, brings into focus an article written by Adam B. Kushner in the Newsweek of June 16, 2008.

Adam Kushner cites Pidyon shevuyim (The redemption of captives), as well as pressure from mothers of young captured soldiers as reasons for Israeli Government approval of prisoner swaps, in spite of what he sees as the danger inherent in this practice... An overall endangering of the world, as militants capture prisoners to be traded for their own people, who would then ultimately re-offend, sometimes with more devastating consequences than previously.

... A compelling argument, except that like the voices insisting Israel's prisoner swap today is a bad idea, he has not taken his argument into the realm of the urgency to find a just and sustainable solution to the Israel/Palestinian conflict.

... A just and sustainable solution will, in time and with the commitment of all the stake holders, obviate the need for Prisoner -taking and the resultant prisoner exchanges..

War games..

Recently, both Governments of Israel and Iran have held the attention of the world with their show of readiness for war.

Israel's military exercise in the skies has been generally construed as perhaps a show of their readiness to strike pre-emptively at Iran's nuclear facilities, as concerns continue to be expressed about what is perceived as Iran's belligerent intentions. The Iranians continue to insist that their nuclear facilities are designed for peaceful purposes.

Iran has tested both short and long range missiles, in a show of what they say is their readiness to do significant damage to the enemy if attacked. Prominent voices have suggested this to mean that Iran is indeed a threat which should be addressed one way or another..

Regardless of which views are right or wrong, what must not be lost on us all is what actual war will mean for a world reeling from the effects of natural disaster, war, disease and hunger..

Those of prominent voice should steer their discourse towards dialogue for the sake of peace.. and not towards the readiness for war..

Gaza's economic blockade.. a double edged sword

The June 14 edition of the Financial Times (Europe) describes in its news analysis, the rising power of Hamas in Gaza despite Gaza being economically blockaded and Hamas being in almost all-out military conflict with Israel.

Hamas ability to consolidate its power and retain the support of the man, woman and child on the streets serves as proof that whilst economic sanctions can encourage people to turn against the leadership, it can also make the people more entrenched in their support for their leaders.. .especially in the face of bloodshed.

It is time for the search for peace in the region to have a 'human' feel..