Trump, Kim, 'Photo-op diplomacy' and the march to an uneasy status quo

Trump and Kim shake hands at just concluded summit in Hanoi

The latest summit between leaders of the United States and North Korea, which ended abruptly on the 28th of February 2019 without a signed agreement, is put in perspective.

The reason for the abrupt end of the Hanoi summit was explained by none other than Donald Trump and his Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. Apparently Chairman Kim and his country wanted all sanctions lifted in exchange for dismantling only a part of their nuclear program.

The North Korean leader's position in and of itself, is perhaps not surprising to any keen observer of world affairs. What is worth contemplating however, is what summits which amount to little more than a photo opportunity, mean for the furtherance of peaceful coexistence between North Korea, its neighbours and the world at large.

'Photo-op diplomacy' has just put history on notice.

 Every photo opportunity increases Chairman Kim's stature on the world stage. followed from this is the likely 'incremental acceptance' that he will never get rid of his nuclear weapons in their entirety.

Trump and Jerusalem: The death and opportunity of the peace process

On Wednesday 6th December 2017, President Donald Trump formally recognized Jerusalem as capital of the state of Israel. This action by the American leader not only upends nearly seven decades of American foreign policy, it also enforces a sense across the region and the world that the United States are incapable of being the arbiter in brokering a just settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. It is action that history would almost certainly judge as confirming that the peace process as we know it has been dead for some time.

It is confirmation that insistence of the viability of the peace process is not backed by the United State's capacity to show the firmness and even-handedness required to steer both parties towards the desired goal of a two-state solution.

If Mr Trump's declaration on Jerusalem disqualifies the United States from being a fair broker of peace in the region (as is being increasingly mooted), it has also created a void and an opportunity to fill that void.

It is time for the other nations of the world - especially  influential ones-   to step forward in the absence of the reliability of the United States and push for peaceful co-existence between Israel and the Palestinians. That is the very least that the ordinary men, women and children caught up in the nightmare of dishonesty that has at times been the peace process, deserve.

'It was not a matter of if, but when' : North Korea's march to nuclear statehood and the threat to peace

North Korea's announcement today, that it has "With complete success" detonated a hydrogen bomb, estimated to be significantly more powerful than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki,  is put in perspective.

This latest provocation by North Korea- more significant than any thus far by it- represents an escalation, and one that perhaps more than any by them, exposes the incoherence thus far at the heart of policies and strategies by other countries in the region ( and especially the united States) to contain It.

North Korea has insisted that accruing nuclear weapons is a form of deterrence-  a means of preventing  a 'decapitation strike' from the United States which if it were to happen, would surely spell the end the reign of the Kim dynasty and the complexion of North Korea as we know it today.

It is however clear that the reign of Kim Jong-un in North Korea has seen a palpable escalation in tensions in the region, which condemnation and isolation by themselves are doing nothing to curtail. A troubling outcome of this is that something could give in an instant, gravely jeopardizing the already uneasy peace the region knows today and leading to a catastrophic loss of lives due to armed conflict.

It is perhaps time for a coherence in the strategy of  United States, its allies and the wider world when it comes to North Korea and its leader.

 It has to be a coldly pragmatic strategy that acknowledges that North Korea is now effectively a nuclear state, which  mere condemnation and isolation will not reverse.

It has to become a strategy that- in the manner of its clear -eyed and practical engagement- faces that country with the responsibilities and indeed the grave danger posed to its own people and other peoples, by its stockpiling of nuclear weapons.

The crises in the Gulf and the shadow of Trump

Photo culled from Aljazeera.com

The current crises in the Gulf, which has seen the state of Qatar isolated by its neighbors, including fellow countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, is put in perspective.

It is perhaps not insignificant that the Saudi- led coalition against Qatar mobilized  shortly after President Donald Trump's visit to the region.

So much was made of the success of that visit by the Trump administration, and it was not lost on the world that much of the region, including Saudi Arabia, shared that sentiment.

It has become increasingly clear that it was a visit that was good for business and something else.


A long simmering resentment of Qatar by its neighbors has been given vent, and the manner of the move to isolate Qatar has been as uncompromising as it is sweeping.

Included in the list of demands made to Qatar- seen by it as an attack on its sovereignty-  is to shutter the network it owns and funds (Aljazeera). If this were to happen, it  will amount to a severe curtailing of press freedom, the significance of which cannot be over-estimated.

 Mr Trump's role thus far, has been to be fairly explicit about his support for the idea that Qatar is indeed acting in a manner that is destabilizing for the region it is situated in and the wider world, including funding terrorism. And he has done so without concrete evidence, and without making any comment whatsoever, about the possible complicity of the nations around it, including Saudi Arabia, in doing same.

There is reason to believe that the current crises in the gulf will be viewed by history as a microcosm of the wider impact of a Trump presidency that at best, has shown a lack of nuance of the complexities of world affairs. And at worst, is allowing for an impunity that sees might as right.

There is reason to believe that this crises will be seen as significant proof of the abrogation of a leadership the world has thus far taken as a given, by an unsuited American president.

Putin: His way, his strength.

Photo culled from 'Prospect magazine'

A recent CNN special report by Fareed Zakaria titled 'Vladimir Putin, The most powerful man in the world' inspires perspective on Russia's leader and his influence on his people and the wider world.

The program gave an hour-long insight into Putin's rise and the way and manner of the consolidation of his influence on Russian society as he seeks for it to reclaim its place- as he sees it- on the world stage.

Fareed Zakaria has a point when he declares that Putin perhaps comes tops of every world leader by his capacity to control his country's vast strength in a manner that is 'unilateral and unconstrained by other institutions, parties or political forces'.

By his actions of more than twenty years, Vladimir Putin does indeed understand the capacity of raw power to influence the course of events, silence lesser opponents and fire the varied passions burning within the breasts of a people- the average Russian on the streets- thirsting for leadership.

In short, he understands more than perhaps any other world leader today, the nexus between power and people and the way and manner of exploiting this nexus to serve an at times dubious peace, prosperity and certainly, disastrous conflict.

He may well be the most powerful man in the world.

Third thermism: A potent threat to sustainable development and peaceful co-existence in Africa

A cross section of Africa's leaders

Attempts by some African leaders to circumvent constitutional terms of office- usually 2 terms- and remain in power, is put in perspective.

Dubbed by some as third-termism, this phenomenon has slowly but surely become a focus for charged debate and worse, devastating conflict.

Currently, from Burundi and Gabon, to the Democratic Republic of Congo, this matter is a cause for much instability, displacement of persons, loss of livelihood and violent loss of life.

It is perhaps worth putting a frame on what remaining in power beyond constituted terms of office means for the ordinary man woman and child in African countries where poverty is rife, systems of governance are weak, and a few in corridors of power have the latitude to dictate with near-impunity to dis-empowered populations.

The longer persons in positions of authority remain in power under such circumstances, the less tolerant of opposition they are bound to become. There is also good reason to imagine that over time, a tipping point is reached where the weak and divided population they serve evolves to become less- than- reasonable as well, and would react violently when faced with a scenario that either attempts to perpetuate the status quo or attempts to end it.

 No one person should have a monopoly over the responsibility, perks, success or indeed failure of leadership. Africa and its leaders must embrace this fact in the acceptance of constitutional terms of office, as the alternative is, over time, disastrous conflict that wastes lives and perpetuates under-development.

Colombia: The signal of a new era

As a culmination of four years of sometimes grueling negotiation between the government of Colombia and the largest rebel group in that country- FARC- An agreement has been reached to end what has been the longest- running war in the Americas. This agreement is being seen as 'a milestone for peace in the Americas and the world'.

It has to be said that the Colombian government, after more than 50 years of conflict, has given its citizens reason to be hopeful that a position can be reached, which will see elements at the country's fringe being integrated into society in a manner that is understanding, inclusive, forgiving and forward-thinking.

If indeed the agreement is ratified in a referendum later this year as hoped, the practicality of entrenching it would reasonably be expected to be challenging.

In making every effort to surmount these challenges however, Colombia would have set itself on a path of becoming a beacon not only for the manner of seeking and finding an often elusive peace after years of intractable conflict. It would also be a signpost for the largeness of heart and richness of spirit required to embrace 'the other' on the margins of any society we profess to guard and protect.

On Zimbabwe: 'The best within the confines of the law' can be enough

Evan Mawarire. Credit: BBC

The nation state of Zimbabwe, Southern Africa is yet again in the grip of an economic and social crisis. This is nothing new in Zimbabwe given its travails of the last 10 years which has seen its creeping authoritarianism given full vent under Dr Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party.

Poorly thought through economic policies, cronyism and the recalcitrance of a ruling elite has meant that a country deemed the bread basket of Southern Africa has become a shadow of itself.

The high literacy rate Zimbabwe is famously known for has not been able to be employed to grow the economy and improve ties with the rest of the region and indeed the world, as Mr. Mugabe has become more entrenched in his paranoia about the West. Instead the young , educated and entrepreneurial have been forced to seek greener pastures elsewhere, where their worth is either under- appreciated or envied to the point of being a risk to their lives.

Suffice it to say that the situation in Zimbabwe has given room for an entrenched few and their interests, to perpetuate themselves in power to the detriment of the self-actualization of the many.

Against this backdrop, enter Evan Mawarire. The Zimbabwean Pastor has taken to social media to exhort his fellow citizens of Zimbabwe to down tools and not leave their homes because of the corruption and mismanagement of the economy which has essentially stagnated Zimbabwean society, and prevented the likes of him from self-actualizing and looking after their family's needs.

It can perhaps be said that since Zimbabwe made news headlines in 2009 with the near collapse of its economy and the resultant threat to its social fabric including peaceful co-existence, this is a first for an ordinary citizen to speak out in such a manner against the difficulties he and people like him face every day in Zimbabwe.

He has asked for "Non- violence, non- inciting and stay at home" of his fellow citizens, to spur change. This should force the government of Zimbabwe to deal with the situation in the country, which amounts to a decimation of the economy, and a threat to peaceful co-existence. He describes the action he proposes as "the best within the confines of the law".

The mantra of his #Thisflag movement might well be the cry the citizens of Zimbabwe have been waiting for, to snap the many out of the torpor, that allows for the destructive excesses of the very few.

A threat to societal cohesion and peaceful co-existence writ large

Photo Courtesy of VOA

The aftermath of events in which the police killed two black men in Minnesota and Louisiana, and in which an army veteran- a black man- killed 5 police officers in Dallas Texas, is put in perspective.


Yet again, the loss of innocent lives has prompted soul searching in a nation that prides itself as having built its democracy on a foundation of constant striving for peaceful co-existence, justice and the self actualization of its citizens.


As Barack Obama, President of the United States expressed in his address to some 2000 people in the city of Dallas at a memorial service of the killed police officers, "I've seen how inadequate words can be in bringing about lasting change. I've seen how inadequate my own words have been".


Now that is quite some admission from a leader who it can be argued and with good reason, prides himself in the ability of his words to fire the imagination, to provide perspective, to inspire a fervor for justice.


But how is this so? The answer perhaps lies in the extent to which a people are engaged with a co-existence rooted in fairness and in truth...


It can perhaps be said that an individual, a group of people, an institution or indeed a nation would adopt a position or justify actions however inimical to societal cohesion and hence peaceful co-existence, if nothing serves to challenge these ideas and actions.


It must also perhaps be said that only a constant and committed striving for the values of fairness, inclusion, compassion and justice could possibly be able to pose such a challenge.

On Syria,whither the good choices?

culled from theatlantic.com



An editorial piece in the New York Times of 22nd June 2016 titled 'The false lure of military intervention in Syria', is put in perspective.

 It quite aptly details the difficulties that the United States faces with bowing to suggestions made by its diplomats, that confronting the Assad regime with the threat of military force is a way of nudging him towards seeking a peaceful resolution to a civil war that has destroyed much of his country, and caused as much as 400,000 deaths as well as untold suffering.

It is quite easy to see how the dynamic on the ground creates a scenario of choices ranging from 'limited', to 'not good' as the editorial has so eloquently described,  Russia's ambiguity on the matter of Assad and Syria being perhaps the most potent variable that serves to perpetuate the crises.

The editorial however asks 'whither a workable and rational alternative strategy' from these diplomats, without giving this question as much weight as the detail of a quagmire that is the Syrian war.

On Syria, whither the good choices? Perhaps the answer lies in a United States that must change its mind and fast, about not just what it justifiably sees as Assad's role in bringing about death and destruction, but also his role real or potential, in achieving a desperately needed peace.



The Middle East Peace Process- A fading hope

Culled from Isrealmatz.blogspot.com

The latest attempt, this time by France, to kick-start the peace process by holding talks on the 3rd of June 2016, is put in perspective.

The talks that was no talks has served to highlight the sad reality of what the Mideast peace process has become. It is an exercise that none of the stakeholders seriously believes would lead to meaningful dialogue, which creates opportunity for peaceful co-existence  between the state of Israel and a Palestinian state, long the wish of the Palestinian people.

Dare one ask how it has come to this? The answer is not far removed from the truth that is a lack of moral courage of the principal players to seize the opportunities presented thus far, from the Oslo accords of 1993 to present day.

With a significant proportion of the Middle East embroiled in strife, this lack of moral courage has very little opportunity to be called out as it should.

In 2016, the hope for a meaningful peace process is dimmed by a lack of moral courage which has as its crutch, a wider Middle East in the throes of an upheaval, the effects of which is being felt well beyond Its geographical borders.

On Syria, the matter of Assad

Militants pointing Kalashnikovs at an image of Assad 

 The current development that has seen the United States of America pledge to coordinate activities with the Russian Federation with a view to finding a constructive solution to the 4-year old civil war in Syria, is put in perspective.

Russian troop build up in the country in spite of America's objections has led to an acceptance that Russia is in Syria to stay, and a lack of acknowledgement of this fact would most likely lead to a situation that serves to worsen rather than ameliorate the crises.

While the United States is grappling with the new reality of Russia's presence in Syria, a recurring question keeps interjecting itself into the conversation- the fate of President Assad.

The position of United States and the generality of the West is to declare that Assad has no place in a peaceful and secular Syria, whilst Russia's view on this is ambiguous at best.

As America does what amounts to the right thing under the current circumstances by agreeing to cooperate with Russia on the issue of Syria, it should be mindful of this ambiguity.

Due to the presence of ISIS, thousands of Syrians have either lost their lives or have been displaced by a war that has evolved beyond President Assad's conflict with the Syrian opposition. It is perhaps important that an acknowledgment of this be put front and center as the United States attempts to reach a meaningful accommodation with the Russians on the issue of Syria.

Failure to do this would lead to Russia wielding its ambiguity on the matter of Assad in a manner that delays respite for the millions of Syrians desperately in need of an end to this war.

 

Nigeria: The weight of a decision.

Muhammadu Buhari

The recently concluded presidential election in Africa's most populous and ethnically diverse nation, is put in perspective.

After what at times was a fraught process that threatened to end in chaos and violence even in the very last moments, Muhammadu Buhari a former military General and dictator, emerged as winner.

What transpired in Nigeria during the March 28 election was a case of the volition of ordinary people to embrace change, pitted against the rapacious appetite of an entrenched ruling  party to hold unto power at all cost.

On assuming power in a few weeks, Muhammadu Buhari would be faced with an incredible weight of expectation from a people that for the last 16 years, has had to contend with a leadership that essentially established a 'culture' by condoning corruption and impunity not just from elected officials, but also from ordinary people themselves.

The newly elected president and his government would therefore not only face the challenge of building credible institutions and establishing the rule law which punishes elected officials for delivering for self rather than for the people. It would also have to deal with a people that are essentially cast adrift by years of direction-less leadership to the extent that it has become a challenge to appreciate and be committed to the basics of civic responsibility.

Nigeria's future peace and prosperity will depend on not only curbing the excesses of the political class, but also rekindling the meaning of love of country in a people thirsting for change.

Contemplating Charlie Hebdo two months later

The news seems to have moved on since the terrible happening of the morning of 7th of January 2015, when the Kouachi brothers stormed Offices of satirical weekly newspaper Charlie Hebdo and sprayed the place with bullets, leaving 11 people dead and 12 people injured in their wake.

As a close follower of news event and analysis from  around the world, one is left with the perception that the world, much of which was united with the people of France to declare "Je suis Charlie" has taken a back sit and is waiting for the next event that would give a sense of how the French government and its people have adjusted to the new realities that are an inevitability of happenings as profound as one that, as in this case, threatens the philosophical  bedrock of  a people.

Emotions ran high in the wake of the Charlie Hebdo attack as one would expect. It caused a lot of generalization which at its best, seemed to suggest that the Kouachi brothers were disaffected youth from marginalized Parisian suburbs whose lot could perhaps have be bettered by a more attentive government. At its worst, they were Islamists whose wholly embraced jihad- fueled nihilism had been fatefully employed to threaten freedom of expression, a critical cornerstone that makes France the country it is today.

As things continue to evolve however, It is perhaps best to be reminded that there are dysfunctional individuals, people with a poverty of spirit, that would latch unto any excuse to wrought mayhem on society, tarring the collective black, and instigating wars if necessary whilst they are at it. The Kouachi brothers can safely be put in this category given the terrible wantonness of their crime which has no justification.

However, a balanced approach to getting to the bottom of the happening of the 7th of January which sees France question not only fundamentalist Islam but itself would go some way to guaranteeing that such dysfunctional individuals remain on the fringes of society, where they belong.

         

On Israel and Palestine at the beginning of 2015

Culled Photo: Mahmoud Abbas signs around 20 international treaties. 

Mahmoud Abbas's decision with the support of the rest of the Palestinian leadership, to sign up to join the International Criminal Court in the wake of the rejection of a U.N Security Council resolution demanding an end to Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories by late 2017, is put in perspective.

The American State Department has issued a statement describing the decision of the Palestinians to join the ICC as counterproductive to achieving the Palestinians stated goal of a two- state solution and peaceful co-existence with Israel. It followed on by exhorting all sides to "work constructively and cooperatively to lower tensions, reject violence and find a path forward".

This statement from the American State Department cannot disguise the fact that the United States has been powerless to serve as a catalyst for mutual understanding and trust between both parties.

The threat by the United States Congress to impose sanctions on the Palestinians for signing up to join the ICC is hardly the answer, as it merely re-enforces the position of any Israeli who  is not actively seeking a peaceful and just co-existence with his/her Palestinian neighbor. It merely entrenches the position of any Palestinian who embraces nihilism as a means of staking his/her claim to self determination.

Madiba magic

Celebrating Mandela. Photo by Reuters/Kai Pfaffenbach

Earlier today, over 90 world leaders, including millions around the world joined South Africa and South Africans to mourn the loss, and  celebrate the life of a lion of our time.

Since Nelson Mandela's passage into history on the 5th of December 2013, we the peoples of the world have vacillated between grief and eulogy as we attempt to grapple with the extent to which we are bereft of the wisdom, foresight and steadfastness of the man.

As he readily attested to whilst in life, he was not a saint, and certainly wasn't always perfectly sensible in all his decision making.

It is however clear that over time- much of which was spent in incarceration- Madiba grew into his calling, and utilised the opportunity bestowed on him by destiny, to engineer a striving for peaceful co-existence amongst South Africans. This has also served as a beacon for the rest of the world, laying the foundations for meaningful dialogue whilst shunning destructive conflicts.

The legacy of Madiba is not lost on the world, as the emotional out-pouring shows.

As aptly put by the Secretary- General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon, even in death "Nelson Mandela connected people with each other and with the true meaning of peace".

Libya: history's take.

The kidnapping of Libya's Prime Minister Ali Zaidan on Thursday 11th October 2013, by a faction of the country's Militia, is put in perspective.

As the New York Times describes it, the unrivalled authority of Libya's militias has seen it literally hold the country hostage "... hampering production of oil, forcing power cuts, participating in gun running- all with impunity".

There is collective agreement that Libya's weak central government does not have the means to rein in the militias as well as deal decisively with its worst excesses.

It should become increasingly clear that in spite of knowledge that Colonel Qaddafi governed his country for 42 years without credible institutions including a police force, this fact was not taken into consideration when a section of  the international community backed an intervention that guaranteed his demise.

A much better scenario should perhaps have been to strengthen the opposition militarily, to the extent that Colonel Qaddafi would have no choice but negotiate or face significant erosion of his power.

Given the current circumstances, it is simplistic to merely suggest that getting rid of Colonel Qaddafi guaranteed safety for the citizens of Libya that opposed his rule.

History's take on Libya in the immediate aftermath of the country having been rid of its absolute ruler of 42 years, looks to be that a fundamental mistake was made in the manner of  resolution of its 'Arab spring'.

'The 19th day of the revolution'

Jubilation on Cairo's streets. Photo, Yusuf Sayman for the New York Times.

The aftermath of the intervention of the army, that has seen the removal of Mohammed Mursi as President of Egypt, is put in perspective.

The keen appetite for change seems not to have waned on the streets of Cairo, as millions of ordinary Egyptians have made their feelings known and their voices heard about wanting a change from Mursi, whom they have accused of  arrogance and  lack of a broadly inclusive government. It does not help that the economic lot of the average Egyptian has worsened under Mursi's albeit short spell as freely elected leader. The army has played its part in making the wish of a section of Egypt's populace come true, whilst insisting it has no desire for political power.

What does this mean for democracy and long term peace on Egypt's streets?... one might ask.

It is perhaps safe to say that Mohammed Mursi misjudged the mood on the streets as he sought to establish his presidency and entrench his mandate. Egypt's streets still thirsts for change to the extent that it is impatient, and what might well have worked would have been for Mursi to adopt a more nuanced approach that would have seen him be more open to negotiation, whilst continually reminding his people of the tough road ahead on the country's path to being a firmly established democracy that protects its citizens, guarantees their voice, and also creates opportunity for economic prosperity.

At this delicate moment in the history of modern Egypt however, the Egyptian people, including it's army must take steps to make sure this 'revolution' does not become open ended. The people have made their voices heard in a manner that would only have the long term effect of highlighting the immense power that lies in the hands of ordinary people to effect change,  if in the immediate to medium term, it appreciates the virtue of patience and the wisdom of peaceful coexistence.                

Libya, a fear realized

The escalating tension between protesters and powerful militia in the new Libya, which has seen violence that is "undermining the very foundations of the fledgling state", is put in perspective. The current situation represents a fear realized, and for the sake of the safety and well being of ordinary Libyans, calls for a focus that goes beyond merely seeing this as 'Libya's problem'. A situation of instability has been created, and its entrenchment neither bodes well for Libya nor the wider international community.

To each his own it does seem

In the wake of final rallies before the upcoming presidential election in Kenya, Michaela Wong's article To Each His Own is put in perspective. Her views reveal the nuance of Kenya's party politics that means that different tribes take cold, calculating and often brutal steps to protect their interests during elections. These steps clearly far removes from the notion that election violence in Kenya is "spontaneous". So what lesson may be learnt from this? A government such as Kenya's only serves to make things worse so long as it champions cronyism more, and invests less in encouraging ordinary Kenyans to see themselves more as Kenyans than as members of a particular tribe.